Papilloma Virus Infection and Vaccination and Modeling the Epidemiology of Human Its Impact on Cervical Cancer in Ghana

Abstract

This paper is purported to assess the impact of the modeling of bivalent Human

Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and Pap test on prevalence of carcinogenic HPV 16/18

types in Ghanaian females. For this purpose, a non-linear dynamic model of

homogeneous transmission for HPV 16/18 type’s infection is developed, which accounts

for immunity due to vaccination in particular. The recovery class was partitioned into two

compartments, temporary recovery and permanent recovery . We propose ODE

equations to study HPV infection in the general female population. The vaccinated

reproduction number

described by Diekmann (2010) called the Next Generation Operator approach. The

proposed models were analyzed using quantitative method, with regard to steady-state

stability and sensitivity analysis. Precisely, the stability of the models is investigated

depending on the value for

criterion employed to study the stability of the endemic steady-state. Prevalence data are

used to fit a numerical HPV model, so as to assess infection rates. We also support our

theoretical analysis with numerical simulations. This provides a framework for future

for general female population was derived using the approach

for the disease free steady-state and Routh-Hurwitz

research and public-health policy to determine the dependence of HPV vaccination

programs on age, as well as how the vaccine and Pap test can reduce the number of

infections and deaths due to cervical cancer. We estimated the basic reproductive

number for the general female population based on current vaccination statistics using the

systems of ODE’s to be > 1, which indicates that the pathogen is able to invade the

general female population and cervical cancer cases will increase in the future. The

derivation and analysis of the modified mathematical model enabled a better

understanding of the dynamics of the spread of Human Papilloma Virus infection and

reduction of cervical cancer cases in Ghana.