Abstract:
This paper is purported to assess the impact of the modeling of bivalent Human
Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine and Pap test on prevalence of carcinogenic HPV 16/18
types in Ghanaian females. For this purpose, a non-linear dynamic model of
homogeneous transmission for HPV 16/18 type’s infection is developed, which accounts
for immunity due to vaccination in particular. The recovery class was partitioned into two
compartments, temporary recovery and permanent recovery . We propose ODE
equations to study HPV infection in the general female population. The vaccinated
reproduction number
described by Diekmann (2010) called the Next Generation Operator approach. The
proposed models were analyzed using quantitative method, with regard to steady-state
stability and sensitivity analysis. Precisely, the stability of the models is investigated
depending on the value for
criterion employed to study the stability of the endemic steady-state. Prevalence data are
used to fit a numerical HPV model, so as to assess infection rates. We also support our
theoretical analysis with numerical simulations. This provides a framework for future
for general female population was derived using the approach
for the disease free steady-state and Routh-Hurwitz
research and public-health policy to determine the dependence of HPV vaccination
programs on age, as well as how the vaccine and Pap test can reduce the number of
infections and deaths due to cervical cancer. We estimated the basic reproductive
number for the general female population based on current vaccination statistics using the
systems of ODE’s to be > 1, which indicates that the pathogen is able to invade the
general female population and cervical cancer cases will increase in the future. The
derivation and analysis of the modified mathematical model enabled a better
understanding of the dynamics of the spread of Human Papilloma Virus infection and
reduction of cervical cancer cases in Ghana.
